August’s economic data have switched released, the data among the good news market expectations. Overall, the macroeconomic situation is generally for the better, but as the central government has always stressed the steady rise of China’s economic situation is not stable, not consolidation, unbalanced, will continue to improve the economic stimulus package. Stimulate economic growth remains the focus of the second half of the government’s work.
1, the main economic indicators in August
PMI, 8 month of the Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 54.0%, up 0.7 percent last month, continued to increase slightly more than 50%, indicating that China’s economic upward trend will continue. The new orders index rose slightly. This month the new orders index was 56.3%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month. The new export orders index steady. This month the new export orders index was 52.1%, ibid months flat.
Specific to the steel industry, steel industry in August PMI Composite Index slipped. 64.8% in July, in August fell to 58.9%, industry volatility in the steel under the influence of a good trend to slow down. Orders index fell. From the July export orders index has dropped 53.6% to 48.7% in August, back to 50%. The new orders index from July’s 76.7%, down to 61.2% in August, the overall decline in orders by the impact of steel prices, dealers and end users in the downstream part of the purchase prices of the more cautious.
Industrial added value, in August, more than the scale of industrial added value up 12.3% over the same month last year dropped by 0.5 percentage points higher than in July accelerated 1.5 percentage points year on year growth for the fourth consecutive month to speed up; 1-8 months, up 8.1% over the same period the previous year dropped 7.6 percentage points, compared with 1-7 months to speed up 0.6 percentage points. Industrial production continued to accelerate growth.
1-urban fixed-asset investment in August, urban fixed asset investment 11.2985 trillion yuan, up 33.0%, compared with 5.6 percentage points a year ago to speed up, speed up more than 0.1 percentage points from January to July. View from the sub-1-August industrial, railway investment 310.6 billion yuan, up 103.5%, strong growth. Construction and new projects from the situation, 1-August, total construction project 339 768, an increase of 78,760; construction project plans a total investment of 33.9844 trillion yuan, up 36.2%; new projects 234,906, an increase of 69,223; new projects with total planned investment 9.6739 trillion yuan, up 81.7%. Overall, the urban fixed asset investment growth accelerated slightly.
Total retail sales, August, total retail sales 1.0116 trillion yuan, up 15.4%, higher than the same month last year fell 7.8 percent, 0.2 percentage points last month to speed up. 1-8 month, total retail sales 7.8763 trillion yuan, up 15.1% over the previous year dropped 6.8 percent over the same period, more than 1-7 months to speed up 0.1 percentage points. Showed a steady growth.
These two indicators are an important indicator of domestic demand, but also the government’s macroeconomic policies, the effects of the anti-economic cycle.
CPI, 8 months, consumer prices fell 1.2% (for the same month last year rose 4.9%), reduced by 0.6 percentage point decline the previous month, the chain rose 0.5%. Reduced year on year decline in CPI, the chain up there.
PPI, 8 months, industrial producer prices fell 7.9% (for the same month last year rose 10.1%), reduced by 0.3 percentage point decline the previous month, up 0.8% in the chain has more than 5 consecutive months up ring .
Current two-year decline in both indices narrowed up the chain have emerged, further confirmed the trend of economic recovery.
Import and export, customs statistics, from January to August total foreign trade import and export value 1.33866 trillion U.S. dollars, down 22.4% over the same period last year. Exports 730.74 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.2%; imports 607.92 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.7%. Cumulative trade surplus of 122.82 billion U.S. dollars, by 19%. August month, China’s foreign trade value of 191.7 billion U.S. dollars, of which export value of 103.7 billion U.S. dollars, exports steady at 100 billion U.S. dollars for two consecutive months above; imports of 88 billion U.S. dollars. Seasonally adjusted, in August the same year on year growth, that the import and export value fell 19.4%, exports fell 23%, the value of imports fell 14.9%, import and export data lower than expected in August. Import and export of the same chain is smaller than expected increase, compared to previous few months, the data import and export nearly 10% of the chain growth rate, import and export of the chain in August to a seasonally adjusted growth rate, import and export, export and import chain, respectively growth of 2.3%, 3.4% and 1%, import and export value chain to achieve growth for three consecutive months, but growth has slowed. Although the data is slightly lower as expected, but with the economic recovery in Europe and America (the United States, PMI has more than 50), in the second half of the exports will continue to rebound.
II studies Stock market Stock market is one of the most important leading indicators, leading economic about 6 months. The Shanghai Composite Index by the current round of callback 2667.74 (August 31, 2009) rebounded to above the current 3000, Shenzhen Stock Index rebounded from the round of callback 10,585.08 to 12,385.06.
Money supply Money supply, leading the stock market. Inflection point when the monetary indicators, the stock market and other leading indicators will be the inflection point, after the economy will be the inflection point. According to central bank data showed
: 8 at the end, the broad money supply (M2) the balance of 57.67 trillion yuan, up 28.53 percent, an increase from the previous 10.71 percent higher year-end, high 0.09 percent late last month; Narrow money supply (M1) balance was 20.04 trillion yuan, up 27.72 percent, 1.34 percentage points higher than the previous month end; market currency in circulation (M0) balance of 3.44 trillion yuan, up 11.52%. RMB loans increased 410.4 billion yuan month, new loans than the market had expected, market liquidity remains ample.
Power generation, power generation capacity is lagging indicator, it is, and high energy-consuming industries, especially steel and nonferrous metals recovery related. These industries are relatively lag. August 344.3 billion kwh electricity generation in China, up by 9.3%, the highest 15 months, the fastest growth. Increased by 2.5% than in July. Macroeconomic stabilization and rebound, especially in industrial production gradually recovered, and the weather is warmer capacity to continue the direct cause. SABUNG AYAM