This is the end of May to the “Phoenix Magazine” an article written, then outside in the North as a young scholar seminar paper, are discussed.
In short, the difficulty lies in the South China Sea the involvement of the United States and ASEAN joint, and these two have become a reality. Next, if the Chinese in the ASEAN-US security level or to bring the South China Sea when the topic of negotiation, will be working into the trap; If you do not mention is that rejection of international negotiations to solve the problem.
The following is general background information on the comb. In my opinion, if the use of force, rather than fight in Vietnam the Philippines; However, beware of conflicts or for the transfer of nationalism inspired by the “lessons of Vietnam” line of thinking. Moment, three barrels of oil (CNPC, CNOOC, Sinopec) wells should play quickly, do not just think of prices, the oil wells pumping is the last word.
Reads as follows:
This is a potential crisis in the sea.
China’s South China Sea, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia are claimed, and gradually to take action, Vietnam and the Philippines is continuously advancing oil and gas exploration program.
40% of global marine transportation are subject to this sea, control of the region means that important strategic interests. Philippines rely on the United States to counterbalance China, the middle of the United States would play into the hands.
Invited to major oil companies entered the South China Sea
Talisman Energy (Talisman Energy Inc), and CNOOC, CNPC has worked with both, but also state-owned oil company of Vietnam (PetroVietnam) partners. The Canadian independent oil production company plans to drill next year in Chinese waters. Philippine President Aquino’s spokesman Rick Karan Dange said, Talisman drilled the land, it is China in March to start the fishery patrol boat.
Talisman’s oil market in Canada in third place, the company’s CEO 约翰曼佐尼 (JohnManzoni) high-profile, said: “We have a legal license,” Next “normal speed” work.
Talisman tenders is 133,134, the oil was sold in 1992, Crestone Energy Corporation, headquartered in Houston today for the Harvest Natural Resources (HNR) owned. HNR James, CEO Ed Misi Dun said: “China has hinted very concerned, may interfere in some way.”
The complexity involved in multi-country cooperation, it is Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries develop the operation of the South China Sea oil and gas resources in the path.
Vietnam is divided into hundreds of Nansha sea area of oil and gas tenders, in recent years, Vietnam and the United States, Russia, France, Britain, Germany, continue to enter into the exploration, exploitation of oil and gas contracts, seems to have become an international cooperation. This pattern has been for many years. To the late 1990s, neighboring countries have been drilling in the Nansha sea area more than 1,000 wells, found more than 200 oil and gas structures and 180 oil and gas fields in 1999, annual output of 40.43 million tons of oil, natural gas 31 billion cubic meters, respectively, China 1999 In the offshore oil production and gas production 2.5 times and 7 times. From 1981 to 2002, Vietnam from the Nansha Islands in the exploitation of oil by 1 million tons of oil and 1.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas, profit $ 25 billion. South Vietnam’s oil has become the largest pillar industry of national economy. In 2004, Vietnam’s exports of crude oil worth $ 5.66 billion total. Only this one for the national oil revenue, accounted for 30% of the national budget that year.
In addition to mining oil, gas, Vietnam has taken a lot of plot to the South China Sea appropriation measures.
From the late 1960s, the Nansha Islands, the reefs out of the water became more and more since the 1970s, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries will send troops to military occupation of the islands and reefs. At present, this area of the 49 reefs, Vietnam occupies 29.
China has never recognized the island accounted for unilateral actions in Vietnam, but Vietnam will not only share the island over the years included in the corresponding administrative regions in Vietnam, and since 2007 has been in these sparsely populated islands in the so-called “parliamentary elections.”
According to Vietnam, “Youth Daily” reported today the so-called residents of these islands are mainly fishermen and some “correctional officers.” Since 2005, the Vietnamese border guards, and various branches of a huge influx of retirees began, and enjoy the Vietnamese government’s huge financial subsidies.
Indonesia also gets involved. September 19, 2005, in Indonesia’s Papua Allah Fraser Island waters, China, “Fu Yuan fishing 132” fishing boat, was Indonesia’s naval bombardment, resulting in one death and two injured Chinese crew.
Vietnam expelled Chinese oil tanker probe
The situation facing the South China Sea, China has always pursued the policy of keeping a low profile official, in July 2010, a sudden change in tone, declaring that “the South China Sea is China’s core interests.” I rise from close to the Chinese Foreign Ministry was informed people move from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a staff investigation report submitted to the Central. The report urged the central level determined “to defend the South China Sea.”
Into 2011, China adopted a series of measures.
In March, China’s most advanced fisheries enforcement vessel – China 310 Zhanjiang in Guangdong grand boat into the water, heading for “Deep Blue”, a safeguard national maritime rights and interests of a powerful weapon.
In April, China submitted a note verbale to the United Nations, said the Philippines has repeatedly usurped the South China Sea territorial invasion, leading to further escalation of the dispute.
In May 2009, China published a map in the South China Sea area of China will exceed 80% of the U-shaped region into the “nine intermittent line” territory.
Maritime rights and interests of Chinese initiatives to defend the Philippines have also taken corresponding measures.
March 2, a vessel as the International Energy Forum and follow the Chinese patrol boats strayed into the disputed area; Philippine Navy sent two ships confrontation with the Chinese jets. Militarily, President Corazon Aquino III from the Department of Energy allocated 80 billion pesos (about $ 183 million) for the training of military personnel around the Nansha Islands and long-term deployment.
On China to “nine intermittent line” of the South China Sea ‘claim of sovereignty, “note to the United Nations. They said China’s move violated international law of the sea, a violation of Philippine sovereignty.
As tensions in the Philippines, Aquino III, scheduled for the end of May the first official visit to China was forced to cancel; new access time has not been determined. Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister Liang visited the Philippines in agreement with the Philippine leaders, both regional conflicts and to avoid triggering an arms race.
One after another.
May 27, the Vietnamese government said, “three Chinese patrol boats harassed a South Vietnamese exploration of oil tankers, oil tankers on the probe not only the destruction of equipment, and warned that it violated China Sea.” In addition, Vietnam asked China to “exercise self-restraint, Do not make repeated violations of Vietnam’s sovereignty, and claim the loss of Vietnam, explore the tanker. ” In this regard, the British “Financial Times” commented that the South China Sea region or will face a new “conflict.” Report commented that China and Vietnam, the “conflict” will lead to China’s neighbors in Southeast Asia anxiety.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said in response, “the waters under the jurisdiction of Vietnam in China to carry out oil and gas operational activities, undermined China’s interests and jurisdiction in the South China Sea, the Chinese authorities to take action, entirely in Chinese waters under the jurisdiction of the normal marine law enforcement monitoring activities. “
But Jiang also stressed that China is committed to safeguarding peace and stability in the South China Sea. “We are willing to make joint efforts with all parties concerned to seek appropriate ways to resolve the dispute, seriously implement the” Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea “, and earnestly safeguard the stability of the South China Sea.”
By the power of the United States to counterbalance China
Bloomberg news agency that the neighboring countries to the South China Sea is more radical than ever before, mainly because of agitation by the United States.
Aquino III, claimed sovereignty of the South China Sea and the Washington government support are inseparable. Philippines has a number of U.S. Navy equipment purchased for the South China Sea patrols; including a large “Hamilton” class frigates. April 28, the Philippines, GMA news channel reported that the plan will be used for military training of 80 billion pesos in energy security funds paid to stigma-ridden most of the military contractors – Blackwater USA (now renamed the company Xe company).
Blackwater USA in the past five years has been responsible for maintaining the former U.S. Navy land in Fei Ji – Subic military bases for training in Afghanistan and Iraq, mercenaries from around the world. This time, Blackwater will be responsible for training and support facilities in the Philippines, the military sent to the disputed waters of the soldiers to perform tasks. The company will also be responsible for oil security issues involved is not clear.
For the Philippine government through the power of the United States to counter China’s approach, expressed appreciation for the Philippine media. May 26, the “Philippine Star” the author said, Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands) is not just a dispute between the Philippines, U.S. interests are also present in this. With the United States lost the Philippines and Guam, and the significance compared to the base, the Philippines and the demands of a global superpower interests than simply dwarf – here’s superpower, is that the United States and China.
This article believes that the Philippines “is not a superpower rival of China,” China can ignore the demands of the Philippines, got what they wanted by force. But Chinese leaders understand that this is not the solution to the conflict in the Philippines the best way.
Philippines to rely on the United States, is in line with U.S. strategic demands. Obama administration views the South China Sea issue is very provocative. In July last year, the ASEAN Forum on security issues, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered a speech, expressing the problem of attempting to interfere in the South China Sea. She said: “South China Sea involving U.S. national interests, the United States have the right to participate in the Asian maritime issues, the South China Sea disputes should be resolved with reference to international law.”
“Philippine Daily Inquirer” reported May 25 that the U.S. Navy, “Carl Vinson” nuclear-powered aircraft carrier docked the Philippines is to remind China, the Philippines and the United States military has a strong partnership between the two countries have a mutual defense agreement.
A source said that as the March 11 earthquake and tsunami and the nuclear crisis, Japan has been busy with local relief efforts, the United States intended to use the Philippines to fill this gap in order to maintain security and stability in Asia. In the expression of China’s increasing influence in the region worried about the same time, the sources pointed out that “the United States as the Philippines as a long-term trusted allies, but also because the Japanese case of disaster, the emergence of a weakening of the gap, but also by the Philippines to to fill. “
American Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center * Walter Lohman (Walter Lohman) that the United States continuously the Philippines in the “high priority” position move that the United States has considered the Philippines’ allies and security partners. “
From these circumstances, China to solve two major problems facing the South China Sea.
First, how to deal with the U.S. factor. Philippines by the United States the power to counterbalance China, is China’s most difficult problem to solve the South China Sea. With the progress of Sino-US military exchanges and security consultation mechanism for the establishment of the Asia-Pacific, China need to pay attention, not to the South China Sea into a U.S. problem.
Second, how to prevent the joint ASEAN countries. Although the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries in the South China Sea between the ownership dispute also, but they may choose this platform in the ASEAN, the fight against China. In March, Philippine President Corazon Aquino III, respectively, Indonesia and Singapore on a visit to the hope and the Nansha Islands in the multilateral development of oil exploration and other issues get the support of ASEAN, China and Taiwan will be excluded. With the South China Sea issue continues to heat up, will become Chairman of the ASEAN countries of Indonesia began with the requirements of the South China Sea and South China’s neighboring countries to negotiate, trying to South China Sea into the multilateral negotiations.
More far-reaching from the strategic choice of China, more difficult. China’s diplomatic practice keeping a low profile for many years, is now faced with the “China threat” theory, on the road of peaceful development, without firing a shot to resolve the territorial dispute, is the highest wisdom. Or, at least the “shelving disputes and seeking common development” principle, the latter words are implemented. Once you choose war, it may mean that Sino-US confrontation, the result is not optimistic.
Volcano Eruption in Papua New Guinea
The eruption of Mount Tavurvur volcano on August 29th, 2014. Captured by Phil McNamara.
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